Detroit’s high chances to win NFC top seed in 2023 NFL playoffs

The Lions did something that they had never done before in their Week 16 win over the Vikings. They officially clinched an NFC North title.

Detroit had last won its division in 1993, when it played as a part of the now-defunct NFC Central. The Lions’ division title marks just their third overall and puts them on a path toward being a playoff contender in an open-looking NFC.

With two weeks still left in the season, there is still a lot for the Lions to figure out. They are in the running to be the conference’s No. 1 seed, as they are currently in a three-way tie for the top mark in the conference with the 49ers and Eagles.

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Here’s what to know about the Lions’ playoff picture and their chances of being the NFC’s No. 1 seed as the 2023 NFL season winds down.

Lions playoff picture

As mentioned, the Lions have already clinched the NFC North, so that guarantees they will host at least one home playoff game in 2023. They have also clinched a top-three seed in the conference, as they are guaranteed to finish with a better overall record than the winner of the NFC South.

But which seed will the Lions have? That remains unsettled given that they have the same record as the 49ers and Eagles at 11-4 while the Cowboys are trailing by just one game at 10-5.

As far as the race for the No. 1 seed is considered, NFL.com projects the Lions as having an 8 percent chance to earn that accolade. That is good for the third-best in the conference behind the 49ers and Eagles

Team No. 1 seed chances
49ers 71
Eagles 20
Lions 8
Cowboys 1

While the Lions aren’t in control of their own destiny in that regard, they can at least have a shot at the No. 1 seed by winning out. They would then need a loss by the 49ers to force a tiebreaker with the Eagles.

Philadelphia currently beats Detroit via the “strength of victory” tiebreaker. However, that could change if the Lions beat the 10-win Cowboys and the seven-win Vikings, as the Eagles are playing the Cardinals and Giants over the last two weeks of the season. Those squads have just a combined eight wins, so that could open the door for the Lions to pass them.

Still, beating the Cowboys — who are favored to beat the Lions at home — will be no easy task. And if the Lions lose that contest, then Detroit would be heavily favored to be the No. 3 seed — if not locked into it. Why? Because they wouldn’t have a path to the strength-of-victory tiebreaker anymore, so they would have to finish ahead of the Eagles in the standings to surpass them.

That wouldn’t happen unless the Eagles surprisingly lost each of their final two games of the season.

All that’s to say the Lions look likely to be the No. 3 seed in the NFC if they lose to the Cowboys. That’s part of the reason that they rank third in the No. 1 seed probability

But if Detroit can upset Dallas and put some pressure on the 49ers and Eagles entering Week 18, then the Lions will stay positioned to potentially earn the No. 1 seed. They will just need some help from San Francisco and possibly Philadelphia to ensure that things break their way.

MORE: Lions react to winning NFC North for first time — ‘Just the beginning’

Lions remaining schedule

The Lions have one of the more difficult schedules remaining in the NFL, as their .567 strength of schedule is the ninth-strongest in the league.

That will make Detroit’s quest for the NFC’s No. 1 seed all the more difficult. Add in that its game against Dallas is on the road and that may prove to be one of the Lions’ most challenging games of the season

Below is a look at the Lions’ schedule.

Week Opponent Record
17 at Cowboys 10-5
18 vs. Vikings 7-8

It will be interesting to see what the Lions’ strategy is for their Week 18 game against the Vikings. If they beat the Cowboys, it will be simple; they will play their starters and aim for the No. 1 seed.

But if the Lions lose? Dan Campbell and Co. might want to consider resting their starters as they get ready for a likely wild-card weekend game.

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