Boston Celtics have made ranking in The Athletic’s NBA Player Tiers is broken down

How valuable is depth? As the Boston Celtics have made deep playoff runs the past two seasons, depth and versatility have been their calling card. And yet, they’ve fallen just short to a pair of well-coached teams with arguably the best player in the series.

In Seth Partnow’s latest edition of The Athletic’s NBA Player Tiers, the Celtics tied with the Warriors for the most players on the list with seven. That’s essentially a complete playoff rotation in the top-125 players in the NBA. They have the talent to win a title, so what will it take this year for that to finally happen?

Celtics players in the list include Jayson Tatum (Tier 2A), Jaylen Brown (3A), Robert Williams (4A), Kristaps Porziņģis (4A), Derrick White (4A), Al Horford (5A) and Malcolm Brogdon (5A). Boston could’ve had a league-best eight players in the top 125 but let go of Marcus Smart (4C) and Grant Williams (5A) to upgrade to Porziņģis.

Tatum and Brown maintain their perches in the A segment of the second and third tiers. Tatum is surrounded by Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler and Devin Booker, while Brown is joined by Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell, Jaren Jackson Jr., Anthony Edwards and De’Aaron Fox. These placements seem fitting, as Tatum ranks with the superstars who have gotten close to contention or, in Leonard’s case, have fallen a bit due to injury. Brown is listed alongside some of the league’s best two-way bigs who play a complementary role on offense, as well as the younger generation of lead scorers.

Boston once again has three players sitting in Tier 4A, comprising the 40th- to 54th-ranked players in Partnow’s system. While it was Smart and Horford joining Robert Williams in that group last season — both of whom dropped in this year’s list — they’re replaced by risers White and Porziņģis. The Celtics are the only team who can put out a full lineup of those top-54 players, with the Nuggets and Warriors boasting four players apiece. White jumping up to 4A as Smart moves down to 4C is an ideally timed swap considering the Celtics are now putting the ball in White’s hands.

But perhaps the most surprising placement on this list is Robert Williams, who was lumped into the group of “high hopes” prospects with Evan Mobley and Paolo Banchero as he maintained his spot on Tier 4A even after a somewhat rocky season last year. His inclusion stands out because those are players widely viewed as franchise cornerstones who should be perennial All-Stars starting as soon as this season. While Williams doesn’t have their on-ball offensive versatility, Partnow points out that his assist efficiency and the hope he plays a full season present significant upside. Last season was a bit of a plateau for the Celtics center as he tried to find a consistent role, so it says a lot about the potential for him to remain in the same spot after all the hype following the 2022 NBA Finals run.

If you ask anyone on the Celtics roster, they’ll probably tell you Williams is about as important to their team as guys like Mobley and Banchero. But in reality, his inconsistent health and minutes have made him more of a luxury than a centerpiece. If his health improves, the minutes could come into focus.

Williams has spent time this offseason working to build out his offensive game and develop his touch to expand beyond the restricted circle. Not only would this make him a more involved scorer, but it would finally open up his passing skills to become a part of the system rather than just something he can flash randomly. His defense is already elite enough to group him with two of the league’s top young bigs, so this is where he can prove he belongs.

Boston Celtics have made ranking in The Athletic's NBA Player Tiers is broken down
Boston Celtics have made ranking in The Athletic’s NBA Player Tiers is broken down

If Williams can take this step forward, it unlocks so much of the half-court offense the Celtics want to run in theory but often struggle with because they were so drive-and-kick dependent. If there’s one thing the Smart-Porziņģis trade confirmed, it’s that Brad Stevens and Joe Mazzulla want to find easier ways to get the ball into the middle of the defense and then pass out of there quickly to create open shots for the team’s best players.

Boston took another step last year toward decentralizing roles by emphasizing pace-and-space offense, trying to just get shooters into position early so anyone can get an easy shot. But that led to plenty of nights where the team would have high-volume, poor-accuracy shooting performances and then struggle to string together multiple quality half-court possessions in the fourth quarter.

While giving infinite trust to everyone to hit their shots is a great motivational heuristic, Boston needs more concrete solutions to offensive lulls. That’s why they sacrificed two players who upheld their defensive presence to add another bona fide three-level scorer in Porziņģis. The Danilo Gallinari signing last offseason acknowledged the Celtics had to find someone in their rotation who was composed on the ball and could still be in control when he attack the paint.

It’s also an insurance policy against Horford’s decline, as the 37-year-old went from being an elite shooter in the regular season to hitting just 29.8 percent from deep in the playoffs. His defense was great for so much of the playoff run, but he would have plenty of moments where he couldn’t keep up. Dropping all the way from 4A to 5A in this year’s player tiers shows just how much that matters, so bringing Porziņģis in will help mitigate further inconsistencies.

But the depth can only get them so far. From Giannis Antetokounmpo to Steph Curry to Nikola Jokić, the last three champions were all led by a Tier 1 star. You would have to go back to the Spurs in 2014 to find a title winner who didn’t have someone considered an MVP-caliber player by the end of that season. Perhaps that’s where the Celtics have fallen just short, as Tatum is still sitting in Tier 2A even as Partnow acknowledges he looks like a Tier 1 player 90 percent of the time. Even with all the changes they are making, the Celtics need Tatum to jump to the next tier.

That gap is small, but it’s tangible. The Tier 1 players have a few core elements to their offensive repertoire that make it difficult to be stopped. Even when their shot is cold and they can’t get to the line, they can put up assists or take it to the post. They will find one way to make a strong imprint on all four quarters every game. You can’t really take them out of running the show in crunch time.

Tatum is there most of the time and maybe if he hadn’t rolled his ankle at the beginning of Game 7 against Miami, this narrative would’ve faded. But the Celtics’ penchant for only playing their best when their back is against the wall sticks out as an outlier in this league and it all channels up to Tatum.

Some of that is inherent to his style of play and the stage of his career. Antetokounmpo and Jokić didn’t win the title until their age-26 and -27 seasons, respectively. Tatum doesn’t turn 26 until March. While they are both physical behemoths who could get anywhere they want on the court, Tatum’s whole development arc has been about becoming that kind of player instead of relying on his perimeter skills.

As Tatum and Brown’s 3-point shooting efficiency fell off once they took over the offense these past two years, it’s become clear their ability to control the floor with their physicality and processing of the game will determine how much their ceiling rises from here. All of their battles against the best players in the NBA over the past few years have made it clear that the playoffs are a mental battle more than anything, and that’s the last hurdle for Boston’s leaders to clear.

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